Saturday, July 04, 2009

Mourning the Stock Market


When is The Right Time to Enter the Stock Market to Enjoy the Rally?

How long does the average person mourn the loss of a loved one? It seems that the time period runs from eleven to fourteen months on average. How long does one mourn the losses in the stock market? Can I measure that?

Yes it seems we can. We have an indicator for that too. It was devised in 1962 using un-motional mathematics and technical analysis to measure emotion in the market. E.S.C. Coppock worked out a mathematical indicator to examine how mourning happens in the market. He looked at personal bereavement and took that time period to base his measurement. This is described by Hughes, Gangahar and Mackenzie in the FINANCIAL TIMES (June 6). Currently the indicator is pointing up and that is good news for equity markets. There are several other indicators that one might look into just out of interest and for fun, if not profit: The Dow Jones Theory and the Hindenburg Omen.

Coppock developed an index of eleven and fourteen month periods and summed the rate of change, then used a 10 period moving average to smooth it all out. It’s all Greek to me. Black magic? Maybe, but it seems to work.

In seventeen buy signals, rallies were confirmed 16 times. When the indicator moves up above its zero base line, it is time to get in. It missed in 2001. Not all buy this though. Fundamental technicians like to stick to their charts and opinions and don’t look for such gimmicks. Moreover, the volatility of the last year in the markets worries many technicians who say it may not work. But we will see in the coming months.

On the other hand, many say that it may be right. Based on the three month rally we have seen, we may keep going. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines. It will pour in with any rally that seems strong. Some money will start coming into the market this year no matter what. Barclays has 14 % in cash and plans to buy through the year. In addition there were and still are a lot of anxious investors sitting in the bleachers. When they get tired of 2-3% bond yields and see things going up, they will jump in too. They already missed the rally from the 667 S&P bottom in March and are anxious to make up for it.

The rally now has more legs. The daily trading volumes are higher. This supports a continued bullish note to things. However, the S&P is having trouble getting through the resistance line of the 200 day moving average. This is a must for continued move up. In the UK, the market has been stuck at the 4500 level. The bulls must push through to keep it all going their way. So remember the Coppock Indicator and see if it is right.

Public Debt


Alexander Hamilton was appointed in 1789 the first Secretary of the Treasury by Washington. Robert Morris, who essentially financed the Revolution, was Washington’s first choice. He declined the position but recommended, to Washington’s great surprise, his former aide: Alexander Hamilton. Hamilton had widely studied the financial writers of the day while a colonel serving on Washington’s staff. He had experience as a merchant before the war. Jefferson (State), Knox (War), and Edmund Randolph (Attorney General) rounded out the first cabinet.

I have been reading Ron Chernow’s book: ALEXANDER HAMILTON. I wanted to leave a few of Hamilton’s remarkable insights before you. These thoughts come from over 229 years ago. Hamilton was a Federalist who championed a strong US Constitution and was adamantly opposed by Jefferson, Madison and Adams. He established the Bank of the US, the Coast Guard, set up the Treasury Department, our currency, debt and banking system (to name only a few of this genius’s work).

Hamilton put forward his assembled thoughts in his report to Congress entitled: REPORT ON PUBLIC DEBT. In this document, after instructing himself in the works of Hume, Montesquieu, Adam Smith, Malachy Postlethwayt, Jacques Necker and others, Hamilton presented his grand plan.

Let’s look at a few of Hamilton’s viewpoints. He wanted the new federal government to assume all state and federal war debt. Hamilton proposed making state and federal debt from the Revolutionary War one. The important point here are his thoughts: debt should always be extinguished and the government must be given the means to end it. Debt was good for the nation if properly managed. He later said that debt is the “natural disease of all governments.” Madison, commenting on government debt (bonds) stated that whoever owns the debt, owns the country. Thinking of China yet?

He also believed strongly in property rights. Hamilton linked liberty with property. They were one. Securities must be freely transferable and the owner assumes all profits and losses. Financial transactions cannot be retroactively altered. This policy became known as security of transfer and is sacrosanct in business. Thinking of Chrysler and GM bond holders yet?

On paper money as currency, he believed that “the stamping of paper…is so much easier…than the laying on of taxes…paper emission would rarely fail in any such emergency to indulge too far.” Hamilton established that the central banks could print money only based on hard assets like coins. Remember the gold standard? The money supply is rising and not backed by any hard assets. He also wisely foresaw that the head of the central bank, which set monetary policy, should necessarily be insulated from politicians. Thus we avoid abuse. This is why Bernanke can act.

In addition, he believed that speculative abuses are “an occasional ill, incident to a general good.” Abuses and bubbles will happen, but he tells us we must remember that such things do not outweigh the good banks and markets do for the general population. We should remember that now as our government looks to tougher regulations. Today, the stock market told us it did not like it.

FedEx Poor Earnings Forecast


America’s top-rated Company FedEx Shows Poor Earnings Forecast, Is The Economy Hitting It Hard?

Late yesterday, the United States’ stock market reported a decline in FedEx stocks. Fedex is America’s top-rated overnight parcel delivery company. FedEx itself announced an imminent dip in profits of 30 to 45 cents a share in this reporting period, although analysts were expecting shares of least 60 cents. Wednesday’s stock market report confirmed the predicted decline by closing at a loss of 2.6%. Fedex’s profit decline is partly attributed to its acquisition of Kinkos. Kinkos’ office services have declined in recent months due to the closing of small businesses resulting in America’s struggling economy. The improvement of office technologies and paperless systems has also contributed to Kinkos’ decline in profits. However, Fedex also said that the parcel delivery division’s earnings are hurt by depressed manufacturing activity, as well as a recent rise in fuel prices. What’s worse is that Fedex has already warned that fiscal first-quarter earnings may be as much as 76% below last year’s levels.

Fedex’s international division is said to be stabilizing and has shown signs of improvements and growth in Asia, Latin America and Europe, compared with the third quarter. “That’s a very good sign for us,” said Chief Financial Officer Alan B. Graf Jr. However, this is not the huge increase and success that would ultimately save Fedex. Fedex executives are reviewing strategies to increase growth and earnings in the second quarter.

The economy and gas prices are not the only woes facing Fedex. Just this month, Fedex launched an expensive and politically charged campaign against the unionization of 100,000 of its workers. FedEx contends that its employees are properly classified and that this movement to unionize would cause disruption, less reliability for the company and higher costs. On June 9, FedEx launched its campaign, “Brown Bailout”, which will soon be seen on television and print ads. The campaign asks consumers to complain to their senators about union legislation. “Brown Bailout” refers to Fedex’s main competitor, UPS; (its workers wear the color brown) receiving a government bailout for its purported struggle to compete with Fedex.

Frederick Smith, founder and CEO of FedEx, is not looking for a government bailout. However, there might be signs that Fedex is acquiring a new client, the United States government. This possible new deal for Fedex would not be for delivering parcels, but for its tracking technology. Fedex has been responding to a growing political term called the “Fedex Approach”. The Fedex Approach theory, originated by Republican Mike Huckabee, a one-time republican candidate for president, suggests that the technology of tracking packages by FedEx should be implemented by the government to track the 12 million illegal immigrants around the country. Frederick Smith agrees with the Fedex Approach and said, “Using information technology is possible to handle very large problems. There are structural issues inside the federal government that prevents it from doing so, but technologically, it’s very feasible.” Despite a grassroots effort by some republicans to outsource illegal immigration tracking to Fedex, Frederick Smith does not entertain the notion as a serious offer yet.

Supermodel Gisele Bundchen Is Pregnant


World Highest Paid Supermodel Gisele Bundchen is Expecting a Baby Early Next Year

Sources confirm that Brazilian supermodel, Gisele Bundchen, is indeed pregnant. Bundchen, who is 28 years-old, married the handsome American NFL football quarterback, Tom Brady, in February of this year. Bundchen recently told People Magazine that, “Family is everything”. People Magazine has also reported that Bundchen is “ecstatic” about the baby and is due to Deliver early next year.

Speculation of the supermodel’s pregnancy was the topic of this week’s Sao Paulo Fashion Week in the country of Brazil. Gisele strutted the runway wearing a baby pink and baby blue short baby doll dress. Yes, that is a lot of symbolism for the word “Baby”. This runway appearance could have been Gisele’s way of announcing her pregnancy to the world. Bundchen, who has previously denied the pregnancy rumors following being seen, leaving an obstetrician’s office a few weeks ago, is not denying the claim today.

No doubt that Bundchen has put the word “super” in supermodel. She has a super-salary, it is reported that she is ranked the 16th richest woman in the entertainment industry and worth approximately $150 million USD. She also has a super-career, with her image on the cover of more magazines than any other model. She has a super-body, at nearly 6 feet fall.

Bundchen became a household name when she climbed to the top of her career as the face and body of lingerie company, Victoria’s Secret. Oh, and let’s not forget her former relationship with superhunk and actor, Leonardo DiCaprio. DiCaprio is said to still be pining over Bundchen despite his now long time relationship with Israeli supermodel and stunner, Bar Rafaeli.

Everything seems, well … “super” in Bundchen’s life. She has a baby on the way, a great career, a handsome and successful husband, looks, money and everything else. However, things might not be as perfect as they appear to be. Though this is the first child for this mom-to-be, there is a slight problem. It is well publicized that Bundchen’s husband, Brady, has a 22-month-old son with actress and ex-girlfriend, Bridget Moynahan.

Both Brady and Bundchen, who are now married, insist that they were dating prior to the discovery of Moynahan’s pregnancy. However, it has been widely rumored that Brady abandoned his then pregnant girlfriend, Moynahan, to pursue a dating relationship with Bundchen. Whether or not Brady knew of Moynahan’s pregnancy prior to dating Bundchen is still subject to speculation.

Will Bundchen include Brady’s son, John, as a part of her ideals of a happy family? Moynahan and Bundchen have had many problems adjusting to their new roles in Brady’s life. There have been multiple incidents of hard feelings between the two ladies. Just this March, Bundchen told Vanity Fair Magazine that she felt vested in John’s life and said, “I understand that he has a mom, and I respect that, but to me it’s not like because somebody else delivered him, that’s not my child.

I feel it is, 100 percent”. Moynahan was reportedly “furious” with Bundchen’s comments about John, accusing Bundchen of trying to take ownership of her son. Although Moynahan has not publicly made comments about Bundchen, that has not stopped Moynahan’s friends from talking to the media to express her views.

The New Apple iPhone 3GS


New 3GS Apple iPhone – Why Should AT & T Customers Rethink Before Buying It?

The technology world waited breathlessly late last week for the new Apple iPhone to be released. The new iPhone differs from the former model iPhone by adding some new technologies and devices. Some of the favorite features of the new iPhone is the Spotlight Search which enables users to sort out all of their applications with ease. Instead of going through each application manually, Spotlight Search starts to sort the applications the moment you begin typing your request. The new iPhone will sort the address book feature, web applications, notes and all other applications in mere moments.

Another new feature is the Global Positioning System chip installed in the new iPhone which will eliminate the need for a separate navigation system, for which many consumers pay a lot of money. YouTube is a natural benefactor of another new feature, an included state-of-the-art video camera, complete with professional editing features and an easy upload feature to sites such as YouTube.

Another convenient and important new feature is the enhanced Wi-Fi technology of the new iPhone which provides users with up to 9 hours of battery life. Also, a larger landscape keyboard allows faster messaging. It seems that Apple has thought of everything when creating the new iPhone functions. With additional attachments, the iPhone can be used as a blood sugar monitor, music editing and applications for doctors to make house calls and even can double as a garage door opener.

Granted the every-day professional will never venture far from their Blackberry, it is what they know and are comfortable using. However, there is a large population of technology savvy consumers who have been desperately awaiting new cell phone technology and have pounced at the change to tinker and use their new iPhone 3GS. Emmet B. Keeffe III, co-founder and CEO of iRise, a Los Angeles-based technology firm that develops software for the enterprise market, was one of the first to receive the new iPhone. “It was difficult knowing that my new iPhone was on my desk at work while I was on an airplane”, said Keeffe who could not wait to return from a trip to start exploring the iPhone’s new features. Keeffe, a happy user of the former model iPhone, said that the 3GS is, “much better, because it is faster”. Keeffe admits that he is a technology hound waiting for the latest and best technology, but he said that he also genuinely likes the new features in the latest version of the iPhone. Indeed, the new iPhone is faster, try two times faster than the previous model.

Some complaints about the new iPhone have been mild so far. For example, some consumers are complaining that their air-time contractor, AT&T, has not been able to activate the new iPhones which has resulted in an apology rebate by Apple for $30.00 USD. AT&T vows to fix the problem in the next 48 hours. However, most consumers have reported that it was surprisingly easy to use which might have disappointed some new users because many have been honing their skills in anticipation of the challenge of exploring their new phone. In America, the new iPhone 3GS is on shelves now at many retailers. AT&T is offering an introductory rate of $199 USD with a two year contract for air time.

Millions of Americans are Victims of Marketing Fraud each year


Millions of Americans are Victims of Marketing Fraud each year. Don’t be one of them

An interesting alert was published by Karen Blumenthal in THE WALL STREET JOURNAL (June 17) on scams perpetrated on the elderly. Unfortunately, everything Blumenthal wrote was already familiar territory for me and my siblings. It brought to mind our family’s run in with these con artists. We had previously endured the rip-off of two of our relatives. Millions of Americans are victims of marketing fraud each year. The elderly are among the chief prey. They are easy and they have money.

We found out about my mother’s fraud one day when I called to tell her she had won $100 on a legitimate lottery ticket that I had purchased for her from my alma mater. She laughed and told me that was nothing. Her luck had turned and she was waiting for a man in a limousine to come and give her a check for 50,000 pounds for her Irish lottery ticket winnings. She just had to pay a transfer fee of $100.00 to him when he got there. I asked her when this would be and then got hold of my siblings. They were able to head this off and have the police there to arrest the man when my mother turned over her money. It turned out the scam was run out of Canada and not much could be done. But we got a few of the locals involved in the scam. The local police referred us to the FBI. They filled us in on what was going on. They could do very little except give us information and inform the Canadian authorities. My mother’s sister had been doing similar things. She sent money to lotteries all over the world in cash. She received phone calls from Jamaica and this cost her $400 in the scam. They took her number and used it. The phone company gave us some credit of but not much. The scammers got their credit cards and charged a monthly fee to them in the scam. We looked at my mom’s losses over 4 years and found it was $40,000.00.

The major tricks are in weight loss, and lotteries with three million new targets a year. Like my mom, they like to send checks to your loved one and have them deposit them and immediately send money back to them. The check bounces and your bank expects you to make it good. You are stuck with the charges.

These scams are mainly run out of Jamaica, Canada and The Netherlands, although many US run scams exist. What can you do to protect your elderly loved ones from this? You have to be an 800 pound gorilla with soft hands. Parents want their independence. However, they have decreased physical and mental capacities and can no longer function alone. You may have to get legal power of attorney to handle their financial affairs. You may need to take their check book, close credit cards, and check the mail and get rid of the junk mail they get. Go through it all as this is where the scams come to them. Telephone number(s) and usage may need terminated or controlled. Remember that these folks are now on the extortionist’s list and get sold to other scammers.

Two of the scammers were arrested and tried in Boston federal courts. We are kept up to date on the progress and sentencing which we were asked to comment on. And we did. We asked for maximum sentences for these animals that prey on the elderly (they got 10-15 years). If you have family in this age group, please check out the article as it has a lot of good information to help you with. Hopefully, you’ll be more aware of it than we were.

Michael Jackson Death Mystery


Michael Jackson Death: Is Questioning his Personal Physician Dr.Murray Justifiable?

Dr. Conrad Murray, Michael Jackson’s personal physician, was questioned by the Los Angeles Police for three hours on Saturday night (Pacific time) regarding Jackson’s sudden death last week. Dr. Murray was alone with Jackson at the time of his cardiac arrest and resulting death. In fact, Dr. Murray was performing CPR on Jackson when the ambulance arrived at Jackson’s home. A spokesperson representing Dr. Murray confirmed the doctor’s questioning by the police and announced that Dr. Murray responded to, “every and all questions.” The spokesperson also confirmed that Dr. Murray, “will continue to cooperate fully with the authorities …”

After Jackson was taken from his home by ambulance, the Los Angeles Police impounded Dr. Murray’s vehicle to search for narcotics or other evidence pointing to the cause of Jackson’s death. It turns out that Dr. Murray might be answering further questions quite soon, perhaps not to investigators, but to the public. Sources are confirming that Dr. Murray is not board certified in any medical practice specialty. Although, board certification is not necessarily a requirement to practice medicine, sources say that Jackson hired Dr. Murray three years ago believing that he was hiring a cardiologist.

Certainly, the public is now aware that Jackson was planning a come-back performance prior to his death. His upcoming concert was to commence in London and was called “Dangerous.” The concert promoters, who were paying for the tour event, required Jackson to pass a physical as an insurance requirement. Indeed, Jackson was administered a five-hour physical in February of this year. A physical was required to make certain that Jackson was physically prepared for the vigorous concert demands, including dancing. The concert promoters are saying today that, “Michael passed the physical with flying colors.”

Dr. Murray has been the target of a lot of scrutiny from the public in the last few days. It has been revealed that Dr. Murray has a history of personal misdeeds. Although no patient-doctor medical complaints have been made against him, he is embroiled in several personal legal matters such as tax liens, education loan defaults, car registration charges, non-payment of child support and credit card debts. Dr. Murray’s one-time medical practice, Global Cardiovascular Associates, has also been sued by several vendors for its failure to pay creditors. Many speculate that Jackson’ sudden death was caused by an overdose of prescription medications. However, a few doctors hold out opinion that Jackson’s death could have stemmed from a complication of an auto-immune disorder, for which Jackson suffered, called Lupus. Jackson has been diagnosed with Lupus, which can cause sudden heart attacks to its victims when in their 40s or 50s. Though African-Americans are four times more likely to be Lupus victims, Lupus is far more prevalent in women than men.

A more presumable cause of the heart attack, many physicians agree, was a combination of medications. Jackson was known to have been taking pain killers called Dilaudid and Vicodin, a muscle relaxer called Soma, a sedative called Xanax, an antidepressant called Zoloft, an antianxiety drug called Paxil and heartburn medicine called Prilosec. An autopsy of Michael Jackson’s body has been performed but was determined to be inconclusive. No funeral arrangement have yet been made for Michael Jackson by his family.